• S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating from A to A+, citing ongoing economic and social reforms under Vision 2030. The rating boost reflects improved governance, institutional strength, and expanding capital markets. The agency maintained a stable outlook, supported by strong non-oil growth and financial market development. However, it warned that sensitivity to oil prices could affect fiscal balances, projecting a wider fiscal deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2025, up from 2.8% in 2024.

• Despite the expected drop in oil prices to $70 per barrel (2025-2028) and a one-third cut in Aramco dividends by 2025, Saudi Arabia’s medium-term growth remains strong, with real GDP projected to average 4%. As OPEC+ production quotas ease, Saudi oil output is forecast to surpass 10 million barrels per day by 2028. Meanwhile, investments in capital markets, shale gas, and key industries will continue driving long-term growth, with inflation staying modest at 1.9% through 2028.