Global oil markets are projected to experience a record surplus next year, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting an accumulation of oil inventories at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day. This surplus is attributed to slowing demand growth and increasing supplies, particularly from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries. The IEA noted that world oil demand is growing at less than half the pace seen in 2023, with significant contributions from disappointing demand in major markets like China, India, and Brazil.

The IEA has also adjusted its forecasts for non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026, increasing it by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day, primarily driven by production increases in the Americas. This situation poses a financial threat to oil-producing companies and countries, as crude prices have already declined by approximately 12% this year, trading near $66 a barrel. The report indicates that OPEC+ may need to reconsider its production strategies to balance the market.