-
November demonstrated robust job creation, surpassing expectations with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 199,000, slightly exceeding the estimated 190,000, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%, lower than the forecasted 3.9%, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.8%. The broader unemployment rate, inclusive of discouraged workers and part-time positions, declined to 7%. Health care led job growth, adding 77,000 jobs, while hourly earnings rose by 0.4% for the month and 4% annually. However, the retail sector lost 38,000 jobs, with half coming from department stores, and transportation and warehousing saw a decline of 5,000 jobs.
-
The strong but moderating labor market in November received mixed reactions from markets, leading to modestly negative stock market futures and surging Treasury yields. Health care, government, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality were significant contributors to job gains, while retail and transportation faced declines. The duration of unemployment fell sharply to an average of 19.4 weeks, the lowest since February.
Why it matters
As the US economy faces expectations of a slowdown in the fourth quarter and modest gains in 2024, the Federal Reserve remains vigilant about inflation. Markets anticipate the Fed halting its rate-hiking campaign and initiating cuts in 2024, with the first expected cut possibly in May. The upcoming Fed policy meeting will be crucial, providing insights into officials' perspectives on the economy. Policymakers aim for a soft landing with moderate growth, sustainable wage increases, and inflation receding to the 2% target.