United Defies Gravity

United Defies Gravity

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  • United Airlines delivered a positive full-year outlook despite anticipating a wider-than-expected loss in the current quarter, ending March. The main contributor to this projection is the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX 9 airplanes. Despite this challenge, United's shares surged by approximately 8% in extended trading. The airline, along with industry peers Delta Air Lines and American Airlines, has experienced increased demand for premium travel in the post-pandemic landscape, with a strong expectation that revenue from premium offerings will continue to thrive, aiming for an adjusted profit of $9-$11 per share in 2024.
  • However, United foresees an adjusted loss in the first quarter, ranging from 35 to 85 cents a share, particularly if all MAX 9 planes remain grounded until the end of January. This estimate surpasses analysts' expectations of a quarterly loss of 21 cents a share. The recent indefinite grounding of MAX 9 jets by the U.S. aviation regulator for safety checks, following an incident on an Alaska Airlines flight, has significantly impacted United and Alaska, which jointly own 70% of the MAX 9 fleet. The grounding is anticipated to affect about 3 percentage points of United's non-fuel operating costs in the first quarter. Despite these challenges, United reported a better-than-expected adjusted profit of $2 a share in the fourth quarter, attributed to robust holiday travel demand.

Why it matters

The airline's proactive inspection of the 737-900ER planes, as recommended by the FAA, revealed no problems with two-thirds of the fleet. With 79 MAX 9 jets grounded, United awaits further updates on safety inspections during its upcoming call with analysts and investors.

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